Document Type : Original Research Article
Authors
1
a) Associate Professor of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran b) National Institute of Population Research, Tehran, Iran
2
a) Senior Research Fellow, University of Melbourne, Australia b) Honorary Senior Lecturer, Australian National University Australia
3
a) Professor of Demography, University of Tehran, Iran b) Academy Fellow, Vienna Institute of Demography, Austria c) Honorary Professor, Australian National University, Australia
10.22038/jmrh.2024.72530.2125
Abstract
Background and aim: Postponement of the second birth has a significant effect on fertility rate. The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the survival function of the interval between first and second birth and its determinants.
Method: Inthis cross-sectional study, the sample of 363 married women aged 15-49 with at least one in Tehran city in 2017. Data were collected throuout a structured researcher-made questionnaire. The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to determine the second birth interval. The gamma-shared frailty distributions with the Weibull model were employed to analyze its determinants.
Results: The median time from the birth of the first child to the second child was reported 84 months (95% CI; 74.46-93.53 & SE 4.86). The time ratio of the second birth interval for women with a diploma degree and less than a diploma, compared to university graduate women, was 0.754 and 0.748, respectively. The time ratio of the second birth interval for married women in the 1980s. in comparison to recent marriage cohorts, was 0.651. Increasing the ideal number of children resulted in a shorter interval between the first and second birth (TR = 0.786). Additionally, the experience of abortion (TR = 1.23), prolonged working hours (TR = 1.010), and postponement of the first child (TR = 1.06) were associated with an increased interval between the first and second births.
Conclusion: The second birth interval in Tehran is exceeds the national average. Urban areas, university education, and delying the first childbirth are factors associated with an extended the second birth interval.
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